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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 11

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ** Injury Update: DEN-72-G.Bolles has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model