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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:18) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 9 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.27 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -1.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model