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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 9 at the 17
Detroit Lions 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6
What Actually Happened
(12:51) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+1.53 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.53 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP
KICK
+1.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT
+0.08 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
