4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

TB
46.4%
DET
53.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.126 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.139 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 25
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

Luke Goedeke T Out Concussion
Josh Hayes CB Out Ankle
Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Antoine Winfield S Out Foot
Tykee Smith S Questionable Illness
Logan Hall DE Questionable Foot
Zyon McCollum CB Questionable Concussion

DET

Ifeatu Melifonwu S Out Ankle
Isaiah Williams WR Out Abdomen
Marcus Davenport DE Doubtful Groin
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Hamstring
Penei Sewell T Questionable Ankle
Jameson Williams WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
DET 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:34 FG TB (11:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 09:05 FG TB (9:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 07:16 FG DET (7:16) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. TB 6 – DET 3
  • Q2 12:51 FG DET (12:51) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. TB 6 – DET 6
  • Q2 09:15 TD TB (9:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – DET 6
  • Q3 11:57 FG DET (11:57) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. TB 13 – DET 9
  • Q3 03:32 TD DET (3:32) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – DET 15
  • Q3 00:42 TD TB (:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (11:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 68%

    (9:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (7:16) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DET 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-8-S.Dennis.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (12:51) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:11) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short middle to 33-S.Vaki to DET 37 for 17 yards (8-S.Dennis).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery right end to DET 48 for 3 yards (9-J.Tryon; 54-L.David).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%

    (5:09) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to TB 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%

    (11:57) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:44) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to DET 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 10 yards (23-T.Smith).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 59%

    (13:01) 3-J.Fox punts 32 yards to TB 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 13 yards (44-S.Tucker).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DET 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 70%

    (1:23) 26-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at TB 13 for 23 yards (29-C.Izien).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to TB 44 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.04 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kennedy [0-Y.Diaby].