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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 48

Detroit Lions 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to TB 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model