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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 41

Detroit Lions 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 3-J.Fox punts 32 yards to TB 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP