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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 13 yards (44-S.Tucker).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model