4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DET 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model