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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP