Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- DAL defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
BAL
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:42 TD BAL (9:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – DAL 0
- Q1 06:38 FG DAL (6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. BAL 7 – DAL 3
- Q1 02:45 TD BAL (2:45) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – DAL 3
- Q2 00:31 TD BAL (:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – DAL 3
- Q2 00:06 FG DAL (:06) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. BAL 21 – DAL 6
- Q3 12:06 TD BAL (12:06) 22-D.Henry left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – DAL 6
- Q4 08:57 TD DAL (8:57) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – DAL 12
- Q4 07:12 TD DAL (7:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – DAL 18
- Q4 02:58 TD DAL (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – DAL 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(12:13) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-D.Harty to BAL 29 for 13 yards (30-J.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 46Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%
(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 51%
(9:28) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(8:28) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to BAL 31, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-D.Harty to BAL 47 for 16 yards (30-J.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%
(5:53) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:15) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-D.Harty.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 38Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%
(14:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-B.Cooks. Penalty on DAL-3-B.Cooks, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 84%
(10:44) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 61%
(5:34) 11-J.Stout punts 31 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-28-S.Kane.
See the full breakdown →
