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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP