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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LV 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model