Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: -0.263 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.016 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LV defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Gardner Minshew (LV): -0.006 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
CAR
LV
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:20 TD CAR (10:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – LV 0
- Q1 00:33 TD LV (:33) (No Huddle) 22-A.Mattison up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – LV 6
- Q2 09:33 TD CAR (9:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-T.Wilson]. CAR 13 – LV 7
- Q2 00:33 TD CAR (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play. CAR 20 – LV 7
- Q3 10:03 FG CAR (10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 24 – LV 7
- Q3 04:50 FG CAR (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 27 – LV 7
- Q4 13:37 TD CAR (13:37) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – LV 7
- Q4 11:03 TD LV (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – LV 13
- Q4 04:50 FG CAR (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 36 – LV 15
- Q4 01:03 TD LV (1:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-S.Thompson]. CAR 36 – LV 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(9:03) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 16 for 7 yards (45-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LV-19-D.Turner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 16.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 39%
(5:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to LV 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 64%
(6:56) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (2-M.Jackson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LV 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%
(3:39) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CAR 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LV 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:23) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 32 for 16 yards (45-T.Eichenberg).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 10 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 88%
(10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(8:17) (No Huddle) 15-G.Minshew up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (40-C.Harris).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 61%
(3:32) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Tucker to LV 20 for 1 yard (21-N.Scott; 49-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 19.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 8 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CAR 49 for 16 yards (2-M.Jackson).
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