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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LV 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model