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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 32 for 16 yards (45-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model