Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 10 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model