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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (No Huddle) 15-G.Minshew up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (40-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model