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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.45 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model