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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP