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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DEN 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model