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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN
18.6%
TB
81.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.115 vs Bo Nix (DEN) -0.332 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 17
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Baron Browning LB Out Foot
J.L. Skinner S Out Ankle

TB

Luke Goedeke T Out Concussion
Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Antoine Winfield S Out Foot
Kameron Johnson WR Doubtful Ankle
Vita Vea DT Doubtful Knee
Josh Hayes CB Questionable Ankle
William Gholston DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 26
–
TB 7

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:11 TD DEN (11:11) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 03:02 TD DEN (3:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – TB 0
  • Q2 09:29 FG DEN (9:29) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 17 – TB 0
  • Q2 01:54 TD TB (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – TB 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG DEN (:06) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 20 – TB 7
  • Q4 14:55 FG DEN (14:55) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 23 – TB 7
  • Q4 07:35 FG DEN (7:35) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 26 – TB 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:37) 5-J.Camarda punts 67 yards to DEN 6, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 27 yards (44-S.Tucker; 98-A.Nelson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to TB 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (3:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 33 yards to DEN 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-51-J.Russell.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:09) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix left tackle to DEN 46 for 3 yards (0-Y.Diaby).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 87%

    (9:29) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 43%

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Godwin.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (:06) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 17 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (12:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DEN 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 25%

    (7:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DEN 6, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-37-T.Thomas.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (14:55) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 87%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DEN 25 for 0 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 87%

    (7:35) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.