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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DEN 6, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-37-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model