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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 15

Denver Broncos 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model