Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 25
Denver Broncos 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(7:35) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+1.45 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+1.19 EP
What Happened
- 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
