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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.02 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model