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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 33 yards to DEN 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-51-J.Russell.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model