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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 57

Denver Broncos 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:09) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix left tackle to DEN 46 for 3 yards (0-Y.Diaby).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model