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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to DET 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 43 for 17 yards (20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.31 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP