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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

DET
56.0%
ARI
44.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 27
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DET

Ifeatu Melifonwu S Out Ankle
Ennis Rakestraw CB Out Hamstring
Alex Anzalone LB Questionable Concussion
Terrion Arnold CB Questionable Illness
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Knee
Isaiah Williams WR Questionable Abdomen

ARI

Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Hamstring
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Hamstring
Dante Stills DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20
–
ARI 13

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:19 TD DET (10:19) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 05:14 TD ARI (5:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 12:33 TD DET (12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:36 TD DET (:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 20 for 1 yard. Lateral to 26-J.Gibbs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. DET 20 – ARI 10
  • Q4 03:52 FG ARI (3:52) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. DET 20 – ARI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to DET 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 14 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:14) 3-J.Fox punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to DET 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:32) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 77%

    (9:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to DET 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 43 for 17 yards (20-D.Dallas).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 89%

    (6:06) 1-K.Murray right end to DET 23 for 1 yard (23-C.Davis). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-K.Murray right end to DET 24 for no gain (23-C.Davis).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 75%

    (3:15) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to ARI 34 for no gain (55-D.Stills, 7-K.White).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:19) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to DET 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 33 for 12 yards (32-J.Blount; 44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (13:31) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to ARI 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (11:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.McBride (31-K.Joseph).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (9:43) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to ARI 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-51-B.Niemann.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 3 yards (16-M.Melton).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 29%

    (6:54) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to ARI 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 87%

    (3:52) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.