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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 34

Detroit Lions 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to ARI 34 for no gain (55-D.Stills, 7-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model