4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to DET 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 33 for 12 yards (32-J.Blount; 44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model