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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 48

Detroit Lions 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to ARI 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model