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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 3 yards (16-M.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model