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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 53

Detroit Lions 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to ARI 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.51 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP