Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 68

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o. Penalty on MIN-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model