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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

HOU
48.4%
MIN
51.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.136 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Dameon Pierce RB Out Hamstring
Joe Mixon RB Doubtful Ankle
Jarrett Patterson C Questionable Calf
Juice Scruggs C Questionable Groin
M.J. Stewart S Questionable Knee

MIN

Jordan Addison WR Out Ankle
Ivan Pace LB Out Quadricep
Dallas Turner DE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 7
–
MIN 34

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:10 TD MIN (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 01:13 TD MIN (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 13
  • Q3 10:26 TD MIN (10:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 83-J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 20
  • Q3 04:00 TD HOU (4:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 22-C.Akers for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – MIN 21
  • Q4 14:57 FG MIN (14:57) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. HOU 7 – MIN 24
  • Q4 10:16 TD MIN (10:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 86-J.Mundt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – MIN 30
  • Q4 04:48 FG MIN (4:48) 16-W.Reichard 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. HOU 7 – MIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 66%

    (6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to MIN 35 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o. Penalty on MIN-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 19 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:27) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to HOU 38, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims ran ob at HOU 39 for 1 yard (20-Jy.Ward).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 19 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%

    (8:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (5:58) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims ran ob at HOU 16 for 6 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 29%

    (1:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:46) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to HOU 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims to HOU 13 for -2 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to MIN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-B.Powell to MIN 33 for 10 yards (37-D.Ross).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:34) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to HOU 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%

    (1:29) 83-J.Nailor left end to HOU 24 for 3 yards (4-K.Lassiter).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (14:57) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to MIN 45 for 15 yards (22-H.Smith; 51-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 61%

    (4:48) 16-W.Reichard 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 56%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 1-S.Diggs to MIN 33 for 9 yards (6-B.Asamoah; 1-S.Griffin).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins (26-Th.Jackson).