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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 40

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.29 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model