4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:46) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to HOU 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims to HOU 13 for -2 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.65 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model