Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 68

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 21

(9:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to MIN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-B.Powell to MIN 33 for 10 yards (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model