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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 42

Houston Texans 7 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 1-S.Diggs to MIN 33 for 9 yards (6-B.Asamoah; 1-S.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.56 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model