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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 7 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins (26-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model