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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to MIN 35 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.46 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model