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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model