4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

LAC
32.6%
PIT
67.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Fields (PIT) -0.010 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.015 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 19
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LAC

Junior Colson LB Out Hamstring
Justin Herbert QB Questionable Ankle
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Elbow
Alohi Gilman S Questionable Knee
Bud Dupree DE Questionable Illness
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Questionable Fibula

PIT

MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Troy Fautanu T Questionable Knee
Russell Wilson QB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 10
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:51 TD LAC (2:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 10:21 TD PIT (10:21) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 03:16 FG LAC (3:16) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – PIT 7
  • Q3 09:08 FG PIT (9:08) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. LAC 10 – PIT 10
  • Q4 14:17 FG PIT (14:17) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. LAC 10 – PIT 13
  • Q4 07:12 TD PIT (7:12) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 19-C.Austin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – PIT 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:38) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:47) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:00) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 13 yards (84-S.Smartt).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 18 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:46) 8-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Davis to LAC 41 for 5 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 83-Co.Heyward).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (3:16) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:52) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%

    (:06) 9-C.Boswell 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (9:08) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:09) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 46.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:48) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (14:17) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:53) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.