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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 13 yards (84-S.Smartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model