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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 8-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Davis to LAC 41 for 5 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 83-Co.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model