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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 5-J.Winston up the middle to CLE 40 for 1 yard (0-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model