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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

NYG
40.1%
CLE
59.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.126 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.154 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYG

Nick McCloud CB Out Knee
Brian Burns LB Questionable Groin
Darius Muasau LB Questionable Knee

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Ankle
Pierre Strong RB Out Hamstring
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 21
–
CLE 15

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:55 TD CLE (14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [5-K.Thibodeaux]. NYG 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 02:12 TD NYG (2:12) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CLE 7
  • Q2 01:49 TD NYG (1:49) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett]. NYG 13 – CLE 7
  • Q2 00:15 TD NYG (:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CLE 7
  • Q4 11:36 TD CLE (11:36) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 21 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche ran ob at CLE 21 for 7 yards (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:04) 1-M.Nabers right end ran ob at NYG 45 for 2 yards (33-R.Hickman).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to CLE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 18 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter, 89-J.Johnson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:14) 5-J.Winston up the middle to CLE 40 for 1 yard (0-B.Burns).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NYG 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at NYG 18 for 3 yards (38-T.Brown).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 15 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 70%

    (10:49) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (9:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 12 yards (82-D.Bellinger).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NYG 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to CLE 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 21 for 3 yards (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 33%

    (14:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to CLE 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to NYG 49 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton, 35-A.Green).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 58%

    (5:27) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 29 for 0 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (3:04) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.