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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model