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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 75

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to CLE 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 21 for 3 yards (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model